内容正文:
毛毛虫能“预测”冬季天气?
Most of us are familiar with Groundhog Day, wherein a large groundhog checks to see its shadow on February 2 and helps to predict when winter will end. But have you ever heard about how a mountain town in North Carolina uses a caterpillar (毛 毛 虫 ) known as the Woolly Worm to make similar predictions?
According to the folklore (民间传说) , the amount of black on the woolly worm in autumn predicts the severity of the upcoming winter. The longer the woolly worm's black bands(带) are, the longer, colder, snowier, and more severe the winter will be. Similarly, a wider middle brown band is associated with a milder upcoming winter. The position of the longest dark bands supposedly indicates which part of winter will be coldest or hardest. If the head end of the caterpillar is dark, the beginning of winter will be severe. If the tail end is dark, the end of winter will be cold. In addition, the woolly worm caterpillar has 13 segments to its body, which traditional forecasters say correspond to the 13 weeks of winter.
Scientific studies on worm forecasting are few and far between. The most often cited is a small trial that American Museum of Natural History entomologist Howard Curran conducted in 1948. Having heard about the caterpillar folklore, Curran traveled to Bear Mountain State Park to collect woolly worms each fall for eight years. He found that if the worms had brown markings on more than a third of their body, winters tended to be milder.
Most scientists discount the folklore of caterpillar predictions as just that, folklore. "It's a wonderful story, but I do think it was a playful trial," says Joe Boggs, an entomologist at Ohio State University Extension who has studied woolly worms. "Curran was a real scientist. He had a bunch of papers published, but he never published this one — probably because he knew it wouldn't stand up to peer review."
Mike Peters, an entomologist at the University of Massachusetts, doesn't disagr