内容正文:
Can Optimism Help Us Reach Our Goals?
KEY POINTS
Optimism bias describes a tendency to overestimate the occurrence of positive events and outcomes.
The bias can motivate us to work harder toward reaching goals, and even improve our health.
While moderate levels of optimism are beneficial, extreme optimism may lead to reckless risk-taking.
Are you a glass-half-full kind of person, someone who views the world through rose-tinted glasses? Do you believe there is light at the end of the tunnel and that every cloud has a silver lining?
Everyday language is full of references to the psychological phenomenon of optimism. It describes a hopeful outlook on life and a general belief that good things are going to happen.
Indeed, many people are affected by a so-called optimism bias. This bias describes a tendency to view positive life events as more likely than what could be expected based on statistics and rational thinking. (For example, I’m currently trying to manage my daughter’s optimistic belief that her birthday—and the associated gifts, cake, and party—is going to come around every couple of weeks rather than just once a year.)
The Evolution of Optimism
Like all other biases, optimism bias can affect people’s judgments and subsequent choices. A positive belief in your chances of an office romance may tempt you into openly flirting with a colleague. An optimistic expectation about the trickiness of foreign languages may lead you to enroll in Russian classes. And a hopeful wish for yet another birthday may inspire you (or rather my dreamer of a 3-year-old) to wear a birthday badge on random days of the year.
If optimism bias has the power to lead us astray from rational choices, why is it so prevalent? There is a simple explanation: It serves an evolutionary purpose.
Similar to related biases such as overconfidence and survivorship bias, optimism bias can serve as an important source of motivation. It shines a light on opportunities while concealing the possibility of